Short-term Forecasts for the Vehicle Fleet 2026–2029
Transport Ananlysis is commissioned annually by the Swedish Government to produce short-term forecasts for passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, heavy goods vehicles and buses, covering the current year and the following three years. This year’s forecasts cover the period 2026–2029. The forecasts for the road vehicle fleet are, to a large extent, affected by the current uncertainty surrounding energy supply and economic developments resulting from the conflict in the Middle East.
Given the uncertainty surrounding current developments, two alternative scenarios for new vehicle registrations are presented in this year’s forecast. One scenario assumes that the conflict is short-lived and has only a limited impact on the Swedish economy. The other assumes a prolonged conflict with a significant impact on economic activity in Sweden.
The difference between the two scenarios is substantial. Under the more favourable scenario, the number of new vehicle registrations is expected to increase over the coming years. Under the alternative scenario, registrations decline as a result of weaker economic growth. The two scenarios for new vehicle registrations are presented in the figure below. The forecasts presented in this report are based on the more favourable scenario. However, the forecast is subject to considerable uncertainty.
Assuming that the conflict in the Middle East does not have a major impact on the Swedish economy, new vehicle registrations are expected to increase gradually during 2026–2027 before declining in 2028–2029. The private market is expected to strengthen over the coming years, supporting both household purchases and leasing of new cars, thereby contributing to the continued electrification of the passenger car fleet.
For light and heavy goods vehicles, the uptake of electric vehicles has been relatively slow in recent years. An exception is electric trucks with a gross vehicle weight of no more than 4,250 kg, which recorded strong growth in 2025. The share of newly registered electric buses is expected to increase substantially in the coming years, primarily driven by a growing number of electric Class II buses, i.e. regional buses.
