Follow-up of transport policy objectives 2025

In 2024, Sweden’s transport system was affected by weather-related incidents, including snow chaos on the E22 in January, a derailment on the Malmbanan in February, and flooding due to snowmelt and heavy rain. The E45 road was washed out near Lilla Edet, and another snowstorm hit the E22 in November. Despite this, the weather-related impact was less than in 2023.

The war in Ukraine and the Middle East, the climate crisis, inflation, and global elections have created worldwide uncertainty. Election outcomes showed weaker support for ambitious climate policies, particularly in the EU, though the “Fit for 55” package remains largely in place. A political shift in the U.S. under Donald Trump negatively affects climate ambitions and creates trade tensions.

Transport is influenced by conflicts around the Suez and Panama canals and Russia’s closed airspace, which increases flight times and emissions. Istanbul is emerging as a hub for Asian traffic, while northern European airports are losing ground. The EU is responding with industrial support and strategic resource investments. Electrification of the vehicle fleet is impacted by trade conflicts, such as tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Transport system development is tightly linked to geopolitics, climate policy, and global trade. At the same time, infrastructure must support both civil and military needs. The green transition will contribute to climate targets but also brings new challenges.

Socio-economically efficient transport should internalize both direct and external costs such as air pollution, climate impact, noise, and accidents. Current cost imbalances indicate excessive truck use and urban car traffic. In rural areas, traffic bears more of its cost. For EVs in rural areas, traffic may even be over-internalized.

Transport system development contributes to Sweden’s progress towards several UN Sustainable Development Goals (Agenda 2030), such as reductions in fatalities and serious injuries. GHG emissions have generally declined since the goals were adopted but increased sharply in 2024.

When compared to last year’s report, three indicator assessments are changed:

• More people are exposed to noise levels above health thresholds, lowering the assessment of “Impact on People’s Living Environment.”
• Reduced domestic air access worsens “Accessibility – Other Passenger Transport.”
• Decreased driving costs and relatively stable public transport prices compared to income developmenmt in lower-income groups improve “Financial Affordability of Transport.”