Short term Forecasts for the Vehicle Fleet 2023-2025
The forecast for the year is characterised by significant uncertainty, due to parts shortages and supply chain problems. The number of newly registered vehicles decreased in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. We believed that the number of newly registered light vehicles would start to increase again in 2021, as was the case up until the autumn.
The increase in newly registered vehicles in 2021 was less pronounced than forecast, due mainly to shortages across all semiconductors, and to delivery problems.
The rate of increase for newly registered vehicles, both light and heavy, is consequently believed to be hindered by inadequate offerings rather than by lower demand for new vehicles.
Newly registered passenger cars that are rechargeable are now sufficiently numerous that they are starting to be reflected in the number of vehicles on the road. We believe that there will be roughly 1 million rechargeable passenger cars on the road by 2025, some 600,000 of which will be purely electric cars. This means that roughly 20 per cent of the passenger cars on the road will be rechargeable by 2025.
